Climate Warming Intensifies Ecological Risks on the Plateau: Protecting the Qinghai–Xizang Plateau Is More Urgent Than Ever

The Qinghai–Xizang Plateau is one of the regions in China experiencing the most significant climate warming. From 1961 to 2020, its average annual temperature increased by approximately 0.35°C per decade, more than twice the global average rate over the same period, with even greater warming observed in some areas. In Xizang, the average annual surface temperature has risen by approximately 0.31°C per decade over the past 50 years, accompanied by fewer cold events and more frequent extreme heat events. In 2020, Lhasa even experienced its first meteorologically recorded summer, illustrating how warming on the Plateau is becoming an increasingly visible environmental change rather than only a long-term climate trend.

One of the most visible consequences of warming is the continued retreat of glaciers. As glaciers melt, lakes and glacial lakes across the Plateau continue to expand, making the pattern of “shrinking glaciers and growing lakes” increasingly apparent. The scale of lake expansion has been described as equivalent to the addition of 1,567 West Lakes. New lakes formed as glacier termini retreat are often surrounded by loose moraine and rock debris. Disturbances such as ice avalanches, rockfalls, and heavy precipitation may therefore trigger glacial lake outburst floods that can travel rapidly downstream through mountain valleys.

The risks are not limited to individual glacial lakes. In the upstream basin of the Gyirong Port alone, 55 glacial lakes cover a combined area of approximately 3.39 square kilometres. Across the broader Third Pole region, many glacial lakes have been classified as high or very high risk. Assessments indicate that potential flood-inundation areas could extend across thousands of square kilometres, threatening buildings, hydropower facilities, farmland, roads, and bridges, while exposing large populations to possible glacial lake outburst flood pathways. The eastern Himalayas and southeastern Xizang are among the areas requiring particular and continued attention.

Of even greater concern is the possibility of cascading mountain hazards. Ice avalanches and rockfalls can generate enormous impact forces. When large volumes of ice or rock slide rapidly into a glacial lake, they can generate powerful waves, damage natural moraine dams, and potentially trigger a glacial lake outburst flood. Such events may once have occurred only every few decades, but as the mountain cryosphere continues to change, both the conditions that generate these hazards and their overall risk patterns are evolving. The mountain disaster that occurred in Chamoli, northern India, in February 2021 again demonstrated the destructive potential created when ice, rock, flood, and other processes interact.

The Qinghai–Xizang Plateau is also the headwater region of many of Asia’s major rivers. Glaciers, snow cover, permafrost, and lakes all play important roles in regional water cycles. Rapid glacier melt may temporarily increase runoff in some rivers, but in the longer term, continued loss of glacier ice will alter the seasonal distribution and stability of water resources. The impacts of climate change on the Plateau therefore extend far beyond glaciers themselves, affecting water security, ecosystems, infrastructure, and densely populated downstream regions.

These changes show that climate action in high-altitude regions cannot focus only on disaster response and ecological protection. It also requires action at the source of climate change through greenhouse gas mitigation and the development of carbon removal pathways suited to high-altitude conditions. At the same time, long-term, continuous, and traceable environmental monitoring is essential for assessing the effectiveness of climate action and identifying emerging ecological risks.

The Himalayan Climate Action Platform (HCAP) focuses on climate change in high-altitude regions and its long-term impacts on ecosystems and carbon cycles. Through digital MRV, life-cycle assessment, and project management, HCAP supports carbon removal actions suited to high-altitude conditions. Strengthening coordination among emissions reduction, carbon removal, and long-term environmental monitoring is an important direction for improving climate resilience across the Plateau.